harb/evidence/README.md

# Evidence Directory

Machine-readable process results for the KRAIKEN optimizer pipeline. All formulas
(evolution, red-team, holdout, user-test) write structured JSON here.

## Purpose

- **Planner input** — the planner reads these files to decide next actions
  (e.g. "last red-team showed IL vulnerability → trigger evolution").
- **Diffable history** — `git log evidence/` shows how metrics change over time.
- **Permanent record** — separate from `tmp/` which is ephemeral.

## Directory Layout

```
evidence/
  evolution/
    YYYY-MM-DD.json       # run params, generation stats, best fitness, champion file
  red-team/
    YYYY-MM-DD.json       # per-attack results, floor held/broken, ETH extracted
  holdout/
    YYYY-MM-DD-prNNN.json # per-scenario pass/fail, gate decision
  user-test/
    YYYY-MM-DD.json       # per-persona reports, screenshot refs, friction points
```

## Delivery Pattern

Every formula follows the same three-step pattern:

1. **Evidence file** → committed to `evidence/` on main
2. **Git artifacts** (new code, attack vectors, evolved programs) → PR
3. **Human summary** → issue comment with key metrics + link to evidence file

---

## Schema: `evolution/YYYY-MM-DD.json`

Records one optimizer evolution run.

```json
{
  "date": "YYYY-MM-DD",
  "run_params": {
    "generations": 50,
    "population_size": 20,
    "seed": 42,
    "base_optimizer": "OptimizerV3"
  },
  "generation_stats": [
    {
      "generation": 1,
      "best_fitness": -12.4,
      "mean_fitness": -34.1,
      "worst_fitness": -91.2
    }
  ],
  "best_fitness": -8.7,
  "champion_file": "onchain/src/OptimizerV4.sol",
  "champion_commit": "abc1234",
  "verdict": "improved" | "no_improvement"
}
```

| Field | Type | Description |
|-------|------|-------------|
| `date` | string (ISO) | Date of the run |
| `run_params` | object | Input parameters used |
| `generation_stats` | array | Per-generation fitness summary |
| `best_fitness` | number | Best fitness score achieved (lower = better loss for LM) |
| `champion_file` | string | Repo-relative path to winning optimizer |
| `champion_commit` | string | Git commit SHA of the champion (if promoted) |
| `verdict` | string | `"improved"` or `"no_improvement"` |

---

## Schema: `red-team/YYYY-MM-DD.json`

Records one adversarial red-team run against a candidate optimizer.

```json
{
  "date": "YYYY-MM-DD",
  "candidate": "OptimizerV3",
  "candidate_commit": "abc1234",
  "optimizer_profile": "push3-default",
  "lm_eth_before": 1000000000000000000000,
  "lm_eth_after": 998500000000000000000,
  "eth_extracted": 1500000000000000000,
  "floor_held": false,
  "verdict": "floor_broken" | "floor_held",
  "attacks": [
    {
      "strategy": "Flash buy + stake + recenter loop",
      "pattern": "wrap → buy → stake → recenter_multi → sell",
      "result": "DECREASED" | "HELD" | "INCREASED",
      "delta_bps": -150,
      "insight": "Rapid recenters pack ETH into floor while ratcheting it toward current price"
    }
  ]
}
```

| Field | Type | Description |
|-------|------|-------------|
| `date` | string (ISO) | Date of the run |
| `candidate` | string | Optimizer under test |
| `candidate_commit` | string | Git commit SHA of the optimizer under test |
| `optimizer_profile` | string | Named profile / push3 variant |
| `lm_eth_before` | integer (wei) | LM total ETH at start |
| `lm_eth_after` | integer (wei) | LM total ETH at end |
| `eth_extracted` | integer (wei) | `lm_eth_before - lm_eth_after` (0 if floor held) |
| `floor_held` | boolean | `true` if no ETH was extracted |
| `verdict` | string | `"floor_held"` or `"floor_broken"` |
| `attacks[].strategy` | string | Human-readable strategy name |
| `attacks[].pattern` | string | Abstract op sequence (e.g. `wrap → buy → stake`) |
| `attacks[].result` | string | `"DECREASED"`, `"HELD"`, or `"INCREASED"` |
| `attacks[].delta_bps` | integer | LM ETH change in basis points |
| `attacks[].insight` | string | Key finding from this strategy |

---

## Schema: `holdout/YYYY-MM-DD-prNNN.json`

Records a holdout quality gate evaluation for a specific PR.

```json
{
  "date": "YYYY-MM-DD",
  "pr": 123,
  "candidate_commit": "abc1234",
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "bear_market_crash",
      "passed": true,
      "lm_eth_delta_bps": 12,
      "notes": ""
    },
    {
      "name": "flash_buy_exploit",
      "passed": false,
      "lm_eth_delta_bps": -340,
      "notes": "Floor broken on 2000-trade run"
    }
  ],
  "scenarios_passed": 4,
  "scenarios_total": 5,
  "gate_passed": false,
  "verdict": "pass" | "fail",
  "blocking_scenarios": ["flash_buy_exploit"]
}
```

| Field | Type | Description |
|-------|------|-------------|
| `date` | string (ISO) | Date of evaluation |
| `pr` | integer | PR number being evaluated |
| `candidate_commit` | string | Commit SHA under test |
| `scenarios` | array | One entry per holdout scenario |
| `scenarios[].name` | string | Scenario identifier |
| `scenarios[].passed` | boolean | Whether LM ETH held or improved |
| `scenarios[].lm_eth_delta_bps` | integer | LM ETH change in basis points |
| `scenarios[].notes` | string | Free-text notes on failure mode |
| `scenarios_passed` | integer | Count of passing scenarios |
| `scenarios_total` | integer | Total scenarios run |
| `gate_passed` | boolean | `true` if all required scenarios passed |
| `verdict` | string | `"pass"` or `"fail"` |
| `blocking_scenarios` | array of strings | Scenario names that caused failure |

---

## Schema: `user-test/YYYY-MM-DD.json`

Records a UX evaluation run across simulated personas.

```json
{
  "date": "YYYY-MM-DD",
  "personas": [
    {
      "name": "crypto_native",
      "task": "stake_and_set_tax_rate",
      "completed": true,
      "friction_points": [],
      "screenshot_refs": ["tmp/screenshots/crypto_native_stake.png"],
      "notes": ""
    },
    {
      "name": "defi_newcomer",
      "task": "first_buy_and_stake",
      "completed": false,
      "friction_points": ["Tax rate slider label unclear", "No confirmation of stake tx"],
      "screenshot_refs": ["tmp/screenshots/defi_newcomer_confused.png"],
      "notes": "User abandoned at tax rate step"
    }
  ],
  "personas_completed": 1,
  "personas_total": 2,
  "critical_friction_points": ["Tax rate slider label unclear"],
  "verdict": "pass" | "fail"
}
```

| Field | Type | Description |
|-------|------|-------------|
| `date` | string (ISO) | Date of evaluation |
| `personas` | array | One entry per simulated persona |
| `personas[].name` | string | Persona identifier |
| `personas[].task` | string | Task the persona attempted |
| `personas[].completed` | boolean | Whether the task was completed |
| `personas[].friction_points` | array of strings | UX issues encountered |
| `personas[].screenshot_refs` | array of strings | Repo-relative paths to screenshots |
| `personas[].notes` | string | Free-text observations |
| `personas_completed` | integer | Count of personas who completed their task |
| `personas_total` | integer | Total personas evaluated |
| `critical_friction_points` | array of strings | Friction points that blocked task completion |
| `verdict` | string | `"pass"` if all personas completed, `"fail"` otherwise |