Merge pull request 'fix: action: test prediction #1177 — run-red-team full session against OptimizerV3 (#1178)' (#1183) from action/issue-1178 into master

evidence/red-team/2026-03-27.json

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+{
+  "date": "2026-03-27",
+  "candidate": "OptimizerV3",
+  "candidate_commit": "b161faaee239cf0435ec9e436ad1af217c394a13",
+  "optimizer_profile": "push3-default",
+  "lm_eth_before": 999999999999999999998,
+  "lm_eth_after": 999999999999999999998,
+  "eth_extracted": 0,
+  "floor_held": true,
+  "verdict": "floor_held",
+  "strategies_tested": 7,
+  "duration_seconds": 2519,
+  "methodology": "bootstrap-light + adversarial Claude agent (claude -p --dangerously-skip-permissions), 7 strategies with snapshot-revert isolation. Raw session data from stream-json output.",
+  "attacks": [
+    {
+      "strategy": "Buy→Recenter→Sell (Classic IL Crystallization)",
+      "pattern": "buy → recenter → sell",
+      "outcome": "HELD",
+      "eth_extracted": 0,
+      "floor_held_for_attack": true,
+      "delta_bps": 24,
+      "insight": "The 1% swap fee on both legs (~4 ETH total) exceeds the IL from repositioning a single anchor traversal. With AW=50 (anchorSpacing=3600 ticks), the anchor is wide and IL per tick is small. Fee income dominates decisively."
+    },
+    {
+      "strategy": "Parasitic LP + Fee Siphoning",
+      "pattern": "buy → add_lp → buy → recenter → sell → recenter",
+      "outcome": "HELD",
+      "eth_extracted": 0,
+      "floor_held_for_attack": true,
+      "delta_bps": 1740,
+      "insight": "Parasitic LP captures some fees from swaps but doesn't extract ETH from LM. The massive buy (600 ETH total) put 600 ETH INTO the pool, and the LM captured ~6 ETH in fees. The sell couldn't push through the floor position (massive liquidity at [127400,127600])."
+    },
+    {
+      "strategy": "Extreme Buy→Recenter→Sell (Maximum Price Push)",
+      "pattern": "buy → recenter → sell",
+      "outcome": "HELD",
+      "eth_extracted": 0,
+      "floor_held_for_attack": true,
+      "delta_bps": 7338,
+      "insight": "1500 ETH buy pushed through anchor AND into discovery. After recenter, the floor at [122800,123000] with 75% of ETH created an impenetrable wall. With 103e24 KRK unsellable, the adversary lost ~734 ETH permanently."
+    },
+    {
+      "strategy": "Multi-Cycle Small Ratchet",
+      "pattern": "buy → recenter_multi → sell → recenter_multi",
+      "outcome": "HELD",
+      "eth_extracted": 0,
+      "floor_held_for_attack": true,
+      "delta_bps": 37,
+      "insight": "Multiple small cycles don't compound IL faster than fee income. Each buy adds ~0.5 ETH in fees to LM (1% of 50 ETH). The floor position consistently blocks sell pressure. The 1% fee acts as a friction ratchet that always benefits the LM."
+    },
+    {
+      "strategy": "Staking Manipulation + Optimizer Shift",
+      "pattern": "buy → stake → recenter → sell",
+      "outcome": "HELD",
+      "eth_extracted": 0,
+      "floor_held_for_attack": true,
+      "delta_bps": 30783,
+      "insight": "Buying 3520 ETH for staking deposited massive ETH into the LM. Optimizer shift created tight anchor (AW=11, ~175 ETH) easy to push through, but floor (95% of ETH, 200 ticks wide, liq=2.04e26) was impenetrable. Fatal flaw: KRK needed for >91% staking can only come from the pool, depositing massive ETH."
+    },
+    {
+      "strategy": "Large buy → recenter → large sell (IL crystallization)",
+      "pattern": "buy → recenter_multi → sell",
+      "outcome": "HELD",
+      "eth_extracted": 0,
+      "floor_held_for_attack": true,
+      "delta_bps": 0,
+      "insight": "Early iteration of Strategy 1. Subsumed by the classic IL crystallization attempt."
+    },
+    {
+      "strategy": "Multi-cycle IL ratchet with parasitic LP",
+      "pattern": "buy → add_lp → sell → recenter_multi",
+      "outcome": "HELD",
+      "eth_extracted": 0,
+      "floor_held_for_attack": true,
+      "delta_bps": 0,
+      "insight": "Early iteration of parasitic LP approach. KRK sell failed due to insufficient liquidity to push through floor. Subsumed by revised parasitic LP strategy."
+    }
+  ],
+  "attack_suite_count": 7,
+  "summary": "Floor held under all 7 adversarial strategies. All reverted to clean baseline — no extraction vector found. The 1% fee moat, floor position defense (75-95% of LM ETH in 200 ticks), ETH-neutral recenter, directional VWAP defense, and the chicken-and-egg problem (KRK acquisition requires ETH deposit) provide layered defense.",
+  "exit_code": 0
+}