diff --git a/evidence/red-team/2026-03-27.json b/evidence/red-team/2026-03-27.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5e01681 --- /dev/null +++ b/evidence/red-team/2026-03-27.json @@ -0,0 +1,82 @@ +{ + "date": "2026-03-27", + "candidate": "OptimizerV3", + "candidate_commit": "b161faaee239cf0435ec9e436ad1af217c394a13", + "optimizer_profile": "push3-default", + "lm_eth_before": 999999999999999999998, + "lm_eth_after": 999999999999999999998, + "eth_extracted": 0, + "floor_held": true, + "verdict": "floor_held", + "strategies_tested": 7, + "duration_seconds": 2519, + "methodology": "bootstrap-light + adversarial Claude agent (claude -p --dangerously-skip-permissions), 7 strategies with snapshot-revert isolation. Raw session data from stream-json output.", + "attacks": [ + { + "strategy": "Buy→Recenter→Sell (Classic IL Crystallization)", + "pattern": "buy → recenter → sell", + "outcome": "HELD", + "eth_extracted": 0, + "floor_held_for_attack": true, + "delta_bps": 24, + "insight": "The 1% swap fee on both legs (~4 ETH total) exceeds the IL from repositioning a single anchor traversal. With AW=50 (anchorSpacing=3600 ticks), the anchor is wide and IL per tick is small. Fee income dominates decisively." + }, + { + "strategy": "Parasitic LP + Fee Siphoning", + "pattern": "buy → add_lp → buy → recenter → sell → recenter", + "outcome": "HELD", + "eth_extracted": 0, + "floor_held_for_attack": true, + "delta_bps": 1740, + "insight": "Parasitic LP captures some fees from swaps but doesn't extract ETH from LM. The massive buy (600 ETH total) put 600 ETH INTO the pool, and the LM captured ~6 ETH in fees. The sell couldn't push through the floor position (massive liquidity at [127400,127600])." + }, + { + "strategy": "Extreme Buy→Recenter→Sell (Maximum Price Push)", + "pattern": "buy → recenter → sell", + "outcome": "HELD", + "eth_extracted": 0, + "floor_held_for_attack": true, + "delta_bps": 7338, + "insight": "1500 ETH buy pushed through anchor AND into discovery. After recenter, the floor at [122800,123000] with 75% of ETH created an impenetrable wall. With 103e24 KRK unsellable, the adversary lost ~734 ETH permanently." + }, + { + "strategy": "Multi-Cycle Small Ratchet", + "pattern": "buy → recenter_multi → sell → recenter_multi", + "outcome": "HELD", + "eth_extracted": 0, + "floor_held_for_attack": true, + "delta_bps": 37, + "insight": "Multiple small cycles don't compound IL faster than fee income. Each buy adds ~0.5 ETH in fees to LM (1% of 50 ETH). The floor position consistently blocks sell pressure. The 1% fee acts as a friction ratchet that always benefits the LM." + }, + { + "strategy": "Staking Manipulation + Optimizer Shift", + "pattern": "buy → stake → recenter → sell", + "outcome": "HELD", + "eth_extracted": 0, + "floor_held_for_attack": true, + "delta_bps": 30783, + "insight": "Buying 3520 ETH for staking deposited massive ETH into the LM. Optimizer shift created tight anchor (AW=11, ~175 ETH) easy to push through, but floor (95% of ETH, 200 ticks wide, liq=2.04e26) was impenetrable. Fatal flaw: KRK needed for >91% staking can only come from the pool, depositing massive ETH." + }, + { + "strategy": "Large buy → recenter → large sell (IL crystallization)", + "pattern": "buy → recenter_multi → sell", + "outcome": "HELD", + "eth_extracted": 0, + "floor_held_for_attack": true, + "delta_bps": 0, + "insight": "Early iteration of Strategy 1. Subsumed by the classic IL crystallization attempt." + }, + { + "strategy": "Multi-cycle IL ratchet with parasitic LP", + "pattern": "buy → add_lp → sell → recenter_multi", + "outcome": "HELD", + "eth_extracted": 0, + "floor_held_for_attack": true, + "delta_bps": 0, + "insight": "Early iteration of parasitic LP approach. KRK sell failed due to insufficient liquidity to push through floor. Subsumed by revised parasitic LP strategy." + } + ], + "attack_suite_count": 7, + "summary": "Floor held under all 7 adversarial strategies. All reverted to clean baseline — no extraction vector found. The 1% fee moat, floor position defense (75-95% of LM ETH in 200 ticks), ETH-neutral recenter, directional VWAP defense, and the chicken-and-egg problem (KRK acquisition requires ETH deposit) provide layered defense.", + "exit_code": 0 +}